Jumping To Conclusions

Over at Volokh the other day, Orin Kerr linked to an ABC News post-debate poll showing an interesting split in partisan scoring of the debate:

MY GUY DEFINITELY WON: I like how ABC broke down its post-debate poll numbers into results from Kerry supporters and results from Bush suppporters. When asked to name the debate winner, participants from each side remained true to their team:

	Kerry won	Bush won	Tie
Among Kerry supporters	85%	2	12
Among Bush supporters	1	84	13

What I want to know is, how much of this is self-deception/wishful thinking -- that is, thinking your guy won because you agree with him already -- and how much of it is a deliberate attempt to game the system -- that is, telling pollsters that your guy won in an attempt to convince undecideds that it's true, to create a self-fulfilling prophecy.