A few thoughts as the Orioles' regular season begins with today's game against the Tampa Bay Devil Rays:
Most prognosticators (human and computer-assisted) have the Orioles pegged for yet another fourth-place finish this year. Given the nearly static nature of the AL East's order of finish in the last eight seasons, it is only sensible of them to expect more of the same. But it would be nice to see someone show a little creativity every once in a while. Virtually everyone has New York and Boston maintaining their lock on the top two positions in the division, though they disagree on which will finish first. Toronto usually ends up in a respectable third, while Baltimore and Tampa Bay (usually in that order) pull up the rear. Some links to preseason predictions:
- ESPN.com - 2006 Predicted Standings: on average, ESPN's writers predicted Baltimore to finish fourth with a 72–90 record.
Baseball Prospectus - Preseason Predictions: a poll of BP's numerate writers gave the Orioles a mean rank within the division of 4.08 with a standard deviation of 0.64.
- Baseball Prospectus - Lies, Damned Lies: PECOTA Breaks Hearts (paid subscription required to view complete article, but the free preview portion shows the predicted AL East standings): Nate Silver's well-regarded PECOTA prediction system put the Orioles in fourth place at 77–85.
- Baseball Prospectus - Probability and Possibility (again, article preview shows AL East standings): Clay Davenport's computer simulations, which built on Silver's PECOTA data, gave Baltimore a 12.4 percent (about one in eight) chance of making the postseason.
- Diamond Mind Baseball - Projected Standings for the 2006 Season: Another well-regarded baseball sim gave the Orioles another fourth-place finish, a record of 77–85, and a 2 percent chance of getting the wild card.
- Nine.com Online Sports Betting - Orioles Turnaround in 2006?: Professional oddsmakers, according to this article, "have Baltimore's OVER/UNDER line set at 74.5 wins this season." I'm not the gambling type, so if anyone knows of a better source for Vegas odds, feel free to suggest one.
Update (May 31): Lee Jenkins of the New York Times has written an elegiac retrospective of the Scott Kazmir-Víctor Zambrano trade. With Zambrano sidelined for the season with an elbow injury and Kazmir pitching like an all-star, the trade is looking even more lopsided as time passes. Of course it's still early, but Jenkins boldly suggests that "maybe it really was [the Mets'] worst deal since they sent Nolan Ryan to the Angels for Jim Fregosi in 1971." In the article, Duquette blames the trade on "too many cooks in the kitchen" in the Mets' decision-making camp, plus he accuses the Devil Rays of downplaying the severity of Zambrano's elbow condition. At least he didn't try to defend the transaction as a good one.
Since Duquette came to Baltimore last fall, he's helped steer swaps for Kris Benson and Corey Patterson that have yielded promising early returns. Acquiring LaTroy Hawkins for Steve Kline has been less successful, but hardly a total loss yet. Nevertheless, if Kazmir keeps pitching like he is now—right now he's one of the ten best starting pitchers in baseball—Duquette may never be able to live down that one bad trade, no matter how many good ones he pulls off with his new team. The New York media and Met fan base will surely remind him about it whenever he comes back to visit the Big Apple, and as long as Kazmir is in the AL East, he'll provide several annual in-person reminders whenever he pitches against the O's. I bet Duquette secretly hopes that the kid's 22-year-old arm falls off.
Comments (3)
This is what O's baseball usually is in April. Hot! Hot! Hot! 2-0 start to the year and going for the sweep of Tampa Bay tonight. It seems like every year, we get off to a great start and peak somewhere around the All-Star Break. Of those pitchers you mentioned, we need someone to step up as the ace. The bats are going to cool off. We're not going to score 16 runs every game. We're going to have to win the 2-1 games. Who do you think is going to step up and be the backbone of the rotation??
Posted by Ryan McLaughlin | April 6, 2006 12:50 PM
Posted on April 6, 2006 12:50
Regarding the Orioles' "hot" starts: it helps when you have a bunch of games against Tampa Bay in the month of April. That has often been the case for the Orioles over the past few years.
The offensive outburst of the first two games is nothing to get excited about because of whom it came against: the Devil Rays' pitching staff. Kazmir and Seth McClung have good stuff, but lack command at this point in their careers. Their bullpen and the rest of their rotation look to me like a bunch of belly-itchers, if you'll pardon the expression.
I'll explore the Orioles' pitching more deeply in an article sometime soon, I hope. In short, I like Cabrera's chances of success the most.
Posted by tbw | April 6, 2006 4:58 PM
Posted on April 6, 2006 16:58
Sorry to say but the O's will be fighting for 3rd in the division with Toronto. Sox over Yanks in the east.
Posted by Dave | April 24, 2006 5:51 PM
Posted on April 24, 2006 17:51