The Orioles Warehouse

I can't speak for every team, but I suspect that most teams were scared of Cust for the same reasons the Orioles found him disposable: his shaky defense, his propensity for strikeouts, and his underwhelming recent performance. Not that I agree with them.

Clearly, the top bugaboo for Cust is his unsightly defensive play. A player's subpar glove may be overlooked in the minors as long as his bat remains potent, but the scene changes dramatically at the major-league level, where errors are rare and defensive shortcomings become magnified. Some teams tolerate a weak bat in return for solid defense (see Rey Ordóñez or Mike Matheny for two recent examples). But almost no one seems to be able to stomach shoddy defense, even if the player's offense may more than make up for it.

There have been only a few truly bad defensive players in the last ten years; most of them have been first basemen who have spent a lot of time at DH. Cecil Fielder, Mo Vaughn, and Frank Thomas are a few that come to mind. But for the most part, their game-changing work with the bat more than compensated for their defensive woes. At least, that's what the writers who voted for the MVP awards seemed to think. And Cust shares a lot of characteristics with that class of player.

Although it may be damning with faint praise to say it, Cust has shown modest improvement as a fielder of late. After posting double-digit error totals in 1999-2001, he made seven errors in 2002 and only three errors last year. There is hope that Cust could still improve with practice, even if the upper end of his potential is at the lower boundary of the major-league average. But his best position is still DH.

What else does Cust have in common with players like Fielder, Vaughn, and (to a lesser extent) Thomas? Strikeouts, and lots of them. In his career, Cust has struck out in roughly one-third of his official at-bats, or about 27% of his total plate appearances. That's more than any of the aforementioned players, who struck out, at most, in about one-fourth of their at-bats over their careers. In fact, Cust has struck out more than just about anyone this side of Rob Deer, who was the quintessential Three True Outcomes player (those outcomes being strikeouts, walks, and home runs).

But again, there is reason to be optimistic about Cust. Last year at Ottawa, Cust had the lowest strikeout rate of his career at 23% K/PA. Unfortunately, it came at the expense of his power—his .426 SLG was also his lowest over a full season at any level. He did maintain his phenomenal batting eye, drawing walks in nearly 20% of his plate appearances, and hit a respectable .285. But the power dropoff must have left people wondering if Cust could reduce his strikeouts without sacrificing his clout.

Then there was his dismal spring training this year. Cust batted just .176 in March and struck out in nearly 40% of his at-bats. This was an ill-timed low point for Cust, who could have made a case for a significant role with a strong spring showing. After giving Cust one at-bat during the first week of the season (he struck out in the ninth inning of a blowout), the Orioles took a gamble by exposing Cust to waivers, and they were as surprised as anyone when no one claimed him.

The Orioles, with two ex-pitchers heading up the front office, have made noises about being a pitching- and defense-oriented club. This is fine—to an extent. In the Birds' heyday of the 1970s, Earl Weaver was not against playing a few defensive specialists, like Paul Blair and Mark Belanger, who could help the starting pitchers stay in games. But on the bench, he did keep some mashers, like Jim Dwyer and Terry Crowley, as trump cards to use in the late innings. Cust's high on-base percentage makes him a great candidate to pinch-hit in situations where baserunners are needed, and his power makes him a threat when a single wallop can make a difference. Those qualities make him a fine weapon off the bench.

Of course, those same strengths apply to all hitting situations, not just in a pinch. And since the Orioles play in a league with the designated hitter, there should be little problem finding a place for Cust in the starting lineup. David Seguí blocks him at DH for now, but whether Seguí is a more productive hitter than Cust at this point is debatable. Injuries have dampened Seguí's performance over the last two seasons; before that, he was effective enough to give Cust a good fight at DH. But the nagging issue of durability should not be dismissed. Cust, who has never been disabled for an extended period, provides insurance in the highly probable case that the human china doll Seguí goes on the DL. That reason alone should have prevented the Orioles from exposing Cust to waivers. Any of the other DH alternatives—B.J. Surhoff, a healthy Marty Cordova, Carlos Méndez, Pedro Swann—are underwhelming solutions with negligible upside or long-term potential.

Managers—particularly those who were defensive standouts and decent contact hitters in their playing careers like the Orioles' Lee Mazzilli—must find players like Cust particularly vexing. When a manager witnesses a series of awkward plays and miscues by a certain player in the field, and when that same player repeatedly returns to the dugout with bat in hand after striking out with men on base, the fatiguing sense of negativeness that results may cause the manager to sour on the player to the point that he overlooks that player's positive contributions. This is a completely human and understandable response, but it doesn't justify the manager subsequently benching that player and giving more playing time to someone with less noticeable faults but lesser assets as well. I'm not saying that this has happened with Mazzilli and Cust, but it appeared to occur last season when Mike Hargrove was managing, and it has happened often enough elsewhere that I would not be surprised to see it happen again.

What is in Cust's future? Since he is out of minor-league options, the Orioles cannot shuttle him back and forth between Ottawa and Baltimore at will like they did last year; before they next send him down, they must expose him to waivers again. So his next return to Baltimore could be his last, best chance to prove his worth.

In the meantime, Cust, if his head is right, is a good bet to rip up the International League. Any faltering in Seguí's performance, whether through slump or injury, would give Cust another chance to show the Orioles what he can do. And his minor-league numbers suggest that a .900 OPS is well within his reach. If Cust breaks through in his return to the AL, he could take hold of Baltimore's DH spot for the remainder of the year and beyond, as the Orioles' contractual commitments to Seguí and Cordova expire after this season. The league is apparently pessimistic about Cust's chances of attaining stardom, but his bat is still dangerous enough to merit watching.